Top executives at major AI labs, including Anthropic and OpenAI, are actively gaming out "day after" scenarios in anticipation of a public and political revolt triggered by a catastrophic AI incident. These officials are preparing for a large-scale event, most likely a cyberattack, that could sever access to critical infrastructure like financial services, internet connectivity, power, or water. The concern is that the first significant instance of real-world harm caused by unsafe AI would turn an already wary public sharply against the technology and its leaders, including Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, as well as President Trump for his reluctance to regulate it.

The Inevitability of Failure

While scenario planning is standard practice in national security, the difference here is that many top AI researchers and executives believe a major incident is inevitable. OpenAI confirmed it conducts preparedness exercises where teams work through potential scenarios, noting they are not treated as inevitable but are meant to help the company prepare for a variety of circumstances. Anthropic declined to comment on the specific planning, but industry insiders told Axios they believe a major event will occur in the next six to 12 months.

Real-World Precedents and Blame Games

The blame game is expected to start immediately whether a rogue-agent swarm breaks containment from an internal testing environment or a bad actor finds unexpected ways to use available models. Recent campaigns targeting South Korean financial organizations, including breaches at two banks, demonstrate the damage one person can do. A hacker from China allegedly used AI tools from Chinese-developed models, including DeepSeek, to steal data from tens of thousands of bank customers. Notably, the attacker used Claude Code to ask for help finding places to sell the stolen data, according to cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike.

Political and Regulatory Headwinds

Top AI planners assume that Democrats, ascendant after the midterms, will move fast to shut down AI but will face significant challenges in doing so. An aging Congress, potentially out of touch with the AI revolution, could find itself out of its depth when trying to craft effective responses. The global economy is now heavily intertwined with an AI infrastructure buildout, meaning that slowing it down could hit an already fragile economy hard. Additionally, the proliferation of open-weight models that can be freely downloaded and used to cause harm presents a problem that most cybersecurity pros see as solvable only by using AI to fight rogue AI.

Shaping Legislation in Advance

The planning involves red-teaming for worst-case scenarios and focuses mainly on racing to educate members of Congress. Company executives know regulation has no chance of passing right now, but still want to shape the legislation and policies U.S. leaders will turn to after a first catastrophic event. Even with Democrats in control of the House and Senate, the companies see fractured politics as the norm, including within the Democratic Party. Some of the most heavy-handed Democratic proposals include banning superintelligence or pausing advanced AI development, while others have bipartisan support and even some industry buy-in, including a required kill switch on advanced AI.

Key Takeaways

  • AI leaders are privately anticipating a catastrophic event within the next 6-12 months.
  • Recent attacks in South Korea show how easily AI tools can be weaponized by individual hackers.
  • Post-crisis regulation is expected to be swift but potentially misguided due to congressional unfamiliarity with the tech.
  • Companies are proactively educating Congress to ensure future laws aren't written in panic mode.

The Bottom Line

The industry knows regulation is coming after the first big crash, so they are racing to educate Congress now to ensure the laws aren't written in panic mode.