SpaceX finally dropped its S-1 filing after markets closed Wednesday, and it's everything the rumor mill predicted and more. The aerospace conglomerate founded by Elon Musk 24 years ago is targeting a Nasdaq listing under ticker SPCX later this year, with expectations of raising approximately $75 billion at a valuation reportedly hitting $1.75 trillion—making it not just the biggest IPO in history but potentially the most valuable publicly traded company on earth. Nvidia currently holds that crown with a $5.4 trillion market cap, so yeah, SpaceX is gunning for the top spot out of the gate.

The Financial Reality Check

Here's where things get interesting. Despite Starlink generating over half of SpaceX's 2025 revenue—at roughly $11 billion—the company still lost $4.9 billion last year on more than $18 billion in total revenue. Since inception, SpaceX has burned through more than $37 billion in losses. That's not a typo. The filing also details legal battles from absorbing Musk's AI and social media ventures, with the S-1 estimating those costs will likely hit $530 million. For context, this is what happens when you try to run a rocket company, satellite internet constellation, and AI startup under one roof while promising investors the moon—literally.

The xAI Black Hole

The filing reveals SpaceX directed approximately 60% of its capital spending in 2025 toward its artificial intelligence division—that's around $20 billion flowing into xAI, which houses the Grok chatbot. And what did that massive investment yield? Revenue growth of only about 22%, far below reported rates at frontier AI labs like OpenAI or Anthropic. The division lost billions last year and shows no signs of profitability in the near term. Musk has essentially turned SpaceX into a checkbook for his AI ambitions, betting that Grok can somehow catch up to ChatGPT and Claude despite entering the race late with inferior resources. It's a high-risk strategy wrapped in sci-fi promises about orbital data centers delivering 100 terawatts of compute per year.

Starship or Bust

Much of SpaceX's future hinges on Starship, the fully reusable heavy-lift rocket that's been blowing up (sometimes literally) for years. The company expects to conduct its 12th Starship launch as early as this week and projects payload delivery to orbit beginning in the second half of 2026—leaving zero room for delays. If that milestone hits, SpaceX plans to use Starship for Starlink broadband satellite launches (H2 2026) and next-generation V2 mobile satellites (2027). The R&D spend is staggering: $3 billion in 2025 alone, plus another $930 million in Q1 2026. SpaceX claims Starship will reduce orbital launch costs by 99% or more compared to historical averages. Whether they can actually deliver on that promise remains the central question hanging over this entire IPO.

Musk's Golden Handcuffs

Let's talk about control. Musk owns 93.6% of SpaceX's Class B stock, which carries 10 votes per share, giving him 85.1% voting power currently—expected to drop post-IPO but remain above 50%. This means he can dodge rules requiring independent directors entirely. His compensation package, approved at the beginning of this year, is where things get truly wild. He stands to receive up to 1 billion shares of Class B stock if SpaceX's value hits $7.5 trillion AND humanity establishes a permanent Mars colony with at least one million inhabitants. Additional shares unlock for creating space-based data centers capable of delivering "100 terawatts of compute per year." These aren't typical CEO incentives—they're the fantasies of someone who genuinely believes he'll colonize another planet in his lifetime and wants to be paid accordingly.

The $28.5 Trillion Promise

SpaceX's S-1 claims it has identified "the largest actionable total addressable market in human history" at $28.5 trillion, with $22.7 trillion attributed to enterprise AI applications alone. The filing also details future markets like point-to-point terrestrial transport using Starship (Musk's 2017 brainchild), space tourism via Dragon spacecraft, orbital manufacturing facilities leveraging microgravity for pharmaceuticals and advanced components, lunar fuel production, and asteroid mining operations. None of these are near-term revenue drivers—they're listed as speculative ventures designed to paint the most ambitious picture possible for institutional investors who probably know better but can't resist the Musk premium.

Key Takeaways

  • SpaceX targets $75 billion raise at $1.75 trillion valuation in largest IPO ever
  • Lost $4.9B in 2025 on $18B+ revenue while burning through $37B since founding
  • xAI absorbed into SpaceX consumed ~$20B (60% of capital spending) with only 22% revenue growth
  • Starship orbital payload delivery expected H2 2026 with $3B R&D spend in 2025 alone
  • Musk controls 85.1% voting power, can earn up to 1B shares for Mars colony milestones

The Bottom Line

This filing is less an IPO prospectus and more a wishlist from a billionaire who's been bullshitting his way through capitalism since PayPal. SpaceX is simultaneously the most impressive aerospace company in history and the most financially irresponsible venture of its size. The AI bet is essentially Musk using investor capital to fund his ego project while claiming $28 trillion TAMs that would require technological miracles to capture. Starship either works or it doesn't—but either way, Elon gets paid.